Falling Rates, Tough Inventory and What I’m Seeing for the 2026 Spring Real Estate Market

Rates Are Coming Down – Here’s the Simple Version

Yes, we’ve seen rates dip below 6% in some cases, especially on government loans. Conventional rates have come down as well, and that’s created a noticeable increase in activity – both on the refinance side, and with people get pre-approved to buy.

A lot of homeowners are calling during this spring real estate market because the cost of everything is still high, and they’re looking to save wherever they can. My job is to walk them through the numbers and help them decide whether a refinance actually makes sense. Not just today, but over time.

On the purchase side, I’m seeing more buyers getting their ducks in a row early. That’s important, because lower rates tend to bring more people off the sidelines, and that usually means more competition.

Why You’re Hearing About Fannie & Freddie (And Why It Matters)

There’s been a lot of talk about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac potentially buying a significant amount of mortgage-backed securities – roughly $200 billion (with a “b”).

Here’s the simple version of why it matters: Mortgage rates are influenced by the 10-year Treasury plus a spread. When large amounts of money are injected into mortgage-backed securities, it can put downward pressure on that spread, which helps bring rates down overall.

Will that lower the rates? Yes, it likely will. But there’s a tradeoff.

The Other Side of Lower Rates: Prices and Competition

Lower rates don’t exist in a vacuum.

When rates comes down, more buyers jump back into the market. And when demand increases faster than supply, prices tend to rise. We’re not talking about massive rate drops – maybe from the low 6s into the mid 5s – but even that is enough to bring in a wave of buyers who’ve been waiting.

If you’re planning to buy this year, my advice is simple: get prepared sooner rather than later. Because the more competitive the spring real estate market becomes, the more likely you are to pay more for the same house.

If you’re in the market to buy a home, get your ducks in a row as soon as you can — because it’s going to get more competitive. – John Walowac

Catching up with inventory has been the biggest challenge. Rates are one thing — inventory has been the problem for a long time. – Jose Barreto, realtor Spring Hill Real Estate

The Best Time To Buy Is When You Can

This always sounds like a sales line – but it’s true. If you could’ve bought five or ten years ago, you’d probably be glad you did. Not because the market was perfect, but because time in the market matters. We’ve seen buyer’s wait – and then end up paying:

• more for the home
• more in competition
• and missing years of appreciation

Even recently, there were markets where people were paying $20K, $30K, even $50K over asking just to win the home.

Lending Has Not “Tightened” for the Spring Real Estate Market

I hear this all the time: “They’re tightening lending standards”.

They’re not.

The mortgage process today is actually very streamlined – especially when you’re working with a team that does consistent volume, like ours. Debt-to-income rations haven’t changed. Credit requirements haven’t suddenly tightened.

Conforming loan limits have increased as well – up to $832,750 in many areas – which means many buyers can still access the best rates without going jumbo.

And investment rates? Those have come down too – even for long-term rental properties.

Refinancing and Why Waiting Can Cost You Money

Refinance activity has picked up fast.

Here’s the part people often miss: there’s a cost to waiting.

If you’re at 7% and can refinance today, the savings are real now. Waiting eight months to save an extra $50 a month can cost you thousands in missed savings.

With my clients, we set what I call a “strike rate”. That’s the rate where the savings meet their goal – and when we hit it, we act.

I don’t disappear after closing. I manage mortgages long-term, and when there’s an opportunity to save money, I bring it to the table. The choice is always yours.

Final Thought: Explore Your Options for the Spring Real Estate Market

I want people to own homes. It’s one of the best things you can do for your family long term.

You don’t need to commit today. You don’t need to rush. But you should explore your options.

Even a conversation – with real numbers – gives you clarity. And clarity is what allows you to move confidently when the time is right.

If you’re feeling overwhelmed about what the initial application looks like, I’ll walk you through it right here, it only takes about 15 minutes.